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As far as American literature is concerned, Franklin has no contemporaries. Before the Autobiography only one literary work of importance had been produced in this country—Cotton Mather\’s Magnalia , a church history of New England in a ponderous, stiff style. Franklin was the first American author to gain a wide and permanent reputation in Europe. Franklin must also be classed as the first American humorist.

English literature of the eighteenth century was characterized by the development of prose. Periodical literature reached its perfection early in the century in The Tatler and The Spectator of Addison and Steele. Pamphleteers flourished throughout the period. The homelier prose of Bunyan and Defoe gradually gave place to the more elegant and artificial language of Samuel Johnson, who set the standard for prose writing from onward.

In the simplicity and vigor of his style Franklin more nearly resembles the earlier group of writers. In his first essays he was not an inferior imitator of Addison. In his numerous parables, moral allegories, and apologues he showed Bunyan\’s influence.

But Franklin was essentially a journalist. In his swift, terse style, he is most like Defoe, who was the first great English journalist and master of the newspaper narrative. The style of both writers is marked by homely, vigorous expression, satire, burlesque, repartee.

Here the comparison must end. Defoe and his contemporaries were authors. Their vocation was writing and their success rests on the imaginative or creative power they displayed. To authorship Franklin laid no claim. He wrote no work of the imagination. He developed only incidentally a style in many respects as remarkable as that of his English contemporaries. He wrote the best autobiography in existence, one of the most widely known collections of maxims, and an unsurpassed series of political and social satires, because he was a man of unusual scope of power and usefulness, who knew how to tell his fellow-men the secrets of that power and that usefulness.

The account of how Franklin\’s Autobiography came to be written and of the adventures of the original manuscript forms in itself an interesting story. The Autobiography is Franklin\’s longest work, and yet it is only a fragment. The first part, written as a letter to his son, William Franklin, was not intended for publication; and the composition is more informal and the narrative more personal than in the second part, from on, which was written with a view to publication.

The entire manuscript shows little evidence of revision. In fact, the expression is so homely and natural that his grandson, William Temple Franklin, in editing the work changed some of the phrases because he thought them inelegant and vulgar. Franklin began the story of his life while on a visit to his friend, Bishop Shipley, at Twyford, in Hampshire, southern England, in He took the manuscript, completed to , with him when he returned to Philadelphia in It was left there with his other papers when he went to France in the following year, and disappeared during the confusion incident to the Revolution.

Twenty-three pages of closely written manuscript fell into the hands of Abel James, an old friend, who sent a copy to Franklin at Passy, near Paris, urging him to complete the story. Franklin took up the work at Passy in and carried the narrative forward a few months. He changed the plan to meet his new purpose of writing to benefit the young reader. His work was soon interrupted and was not resumed until , when he was at home in Philadelphia.

He was now old, infirm, and suffering, and was still engaged in public service. Under these discouraging conditions the work progressed slowly. It finally stopped when the narrative reached the year The first edition of the Autobiography was published in French at Paris in It was clumsily and carelessly translated, and was imperfect and unfinished. Where the translator got the manuscript is not known. Le Veillard disclaimed any knowledge of the publication. From this faulty French edition many others were printed, some in Germany, two in England, and another in France, so great was the demand for the work.

In the meantime the original manuscript of the Autobiography had started on a varied and adventurous career. It was left by Franklin with his other works to his grandson, William Temple Franklin, whom Franklin designated as his literary executor. When Temple Franklin came to publish his grandfather\’s works in , he sent the original manuscript of the Autobiography to the daughter of Le Veillard in exchange for her father\’s copy, probably thinking the clearer transcript would make better printer\’s copy.

The original manuscript thus found its way to the Le Veillard family and connections, where it remained until sold in to Mr. By him it was later sold to Mr. Dwight Church of New York, and passed with the rest of Mr. Church\’s library into the possession of Mr.

Henry E. The original manuscript of Franklin\’s Autobiography now rests in the vault in Mr. When Mr. Bigelow came to examine his purchase, he was astonished to find that what people had been reading for years as the authentic Life of Benjamin Franklin by Himself , was only a garbled and incomplete version of the real Autobiography. Temple Franklin had taken unwarranted liberties with the original. Bigelow says he found more than twelve hundred changes in the text. In , therefore, Mr. Bigelow published the standard edition of Franklin\’s Autobiography.

It corrected errors in the previous editions and was the first English edition to contain the short fourth part, comprising the last few pages of the manuscript, written during the last year of Franklin\’s life. Bigelow republished the Autobiography , with additional interesting matter, in three volumes in , in , and in The text in this volume is that of Mr. Bigelow\’s editions. The Autobiography has been reprinted in the United States many scores of times and translated into all the languages of Europe.

It has never lost its popularity and is still in constant demand at circulating libraries. The reason for this popularity is not far to seek. For in this work Franklin told in a remarkable manner the story of a remarkable life. He displayed hard common sense and a practical knowledge of the art of living. He selected and arranged his material, perhaps unconsciously, with the unerring instinct of the journalist for the best effects.

His success is not a little due to his plain, clear, vigorous English. He used short sentences and words, homely expressions, apt illustrations, and pointed allusions. Franklin had a most interesting, varied, and unusual life. He was one of the greatest conversationalists of his time. His book is the record of that unusual life told in Franklin\’s own unexcelled conversational style.

It is said that the best parts of Boswell\’s famous biography of Samuel Johnson are those parts where Boswell permits Johnson to tell his own story. In the Autobiography a no less remarkable man and talker than Samuel Johnson is telling his own story throughout.

Pages 1 and 4 of The Pennsylvania Gazette , the first number after Franklin took control. Reduced nearly one-half. Reproduced from a copy at the New York Public Library. Paul L. Twyford , [3] at the Bishop of St. Asaph\’s , You may remember the inquiries I made among the remains of my relations when you were with me in England, and the journey I undertook for that purpose. Imagining it may be equally agreeable to you to know the circumstances of my life, many of which you are yet unacquainted with, and expecting the enjoyment of a week\’s uninterrupted leisure in my present country retirement, I sit down to write them for you.

To which I have besides some other inducements. Having emerged from the poverty and obscurity in which I was born and bred, to a state of affluence and some degree of reputation in the world, and having gone so far through life with a considerable share of felicity, the conducing means I made use of, which with the blessing of God so well succeeded, my posterity may like to know, as they may find some of them suitable to their own situations, and therefore fit to be imitated.

That felicity, when I reflected on it, has induced me sometimes to say, that were it offered to my choice, I should have no objection to a repetition of the same life from its beginning, only asking the advantages authors have in a second edition to correct some faults of the first. So I might, besides correcting the faults, change some sinister accidents and events of it for others more favourable. But though this were denied, I should still accept the offer. Since such a repetition is not to be expected, the next thing most like living one\’s life over again seems to be a recollection of that life, and to make that recollection as durable as possible by putting it down in writing.

Hereby, too, I shall indulge the inclination so natural in old men, to be talking of themselves and their own past actions; and I shall indulge it without being tiresome to others, who, through respect to age, might conceive themselves obliged to give me a hearing, since this may be read or not as anyone pleases. And, lastly I may as well confess it, since my denial of it will be believed by nobody , perhaps I shall a good deal gratify my own vanity.

Most people dislike vanity in others, whatever share they have of it themselves; but I give it fair quarter wherever I meet with it, being persuaded that it is often productive of good to the possessor, and to others that are within his sphere of action; and therefore, in many cases, it would not be altogether absurd if a man were to thank God for his vanity among the other comforts of life.

Gibbon and Hume, the great British historians, who were contemporaries of Franklin, express in their autobiographies the same feeling about the propriety of just self-praise. And now I speak of thanking God, I desire with all humility to acknowledge that I owe the mentioned happiness of my past life to His kind providence, which lead me to the means I used and gave them success.

My belief of this induces me to hope , though I must not presume , that the same goodness will still be exercised toward me, in continuing that happiness, or enabling me to bear a fatal reverse, which I may experience as others have done; the complexion of my future fortune being known to Him only in whose power it is to bless to us even our afflictions.

The notes one of my uncles who had the same kind of curiosity in collecting family anecdotes once put into my hands, furnished me with several particulars relating to our ancestors. From these notes I learned that the family had lived in the same village, Ecton, in Northamptonshire, [5] for three hundred years, and how much longer he knew not perhaps from the time when the name of Franklin, that before was the name of an order of people, [6] was assumed by them as a surname when others took surnames all over the kingdom , on a freehold of about thirty acres, aided by the smith\’s business, which had continued in the family till his time, the eldest son being always bred to that business; a custom which he and my father followed as to their eldest sons.

When I searched the registers at Ecton, I found an account of their births, marriages and burials from the year only, there being no registers kept in that parish at any time preceding.

By that register I perceived that I was the youngest son of the youngest son for five generations back. My grandfather Thomas, who was born in , lived at Ecton till he grew too old to follow business longer, when he went to live with his son John, a dyer at Banbury, in Oxfordshire, with whom my father served an apprenticeship.

There my grandfather died and lies buried. We saw his gravestone in His eldest son Thomas lived in the house at Ecton, and left it with the land to his only child, a daughter, who, with her husband, one Fisher, of Wellingborough, sold it to Mr.

Isted, now lord of the manor there. My grandfather had four sons that grew up, viz. I will give you what account I can of them at this distance from my papers, and if these are not lost in my absence, you will among them find many more particulars.

Thomas was bred a smith under his father; but, being ingenious, and encouraged in learning as all my brothers were by an Esquire Palmer, then the principal gentleman in that parish, he qualified himself for the business of scrivener; became a considerable man in the county; was a chief mover of all public-spirited undertakings for the county or town of Northampton, and his own village, of which many instances were related of him; and much taken notice of and patronized by the then Lord Halifax.

He died in , January 6, old style, [7] just four years to a day before I was born. The account we received of his life and character from some old people at Ecton, I remember, struck you as something extraordinary, from its similarity to what you knew of mine. John was bred a dyer, I believe of woollens, Benjamin was bred a silk dyer, serving an apprenticeship at London.

He was an ingenious man. I remember him well, for when I was a boy he came over to my father in Boston, and lived in the house with us some years. He lived to a great age. His grandson, Samuel Franklin, now lives in Boston. He left behind him two quarto volumes, MS. I was named after this uncle, there being a particular affection between him and my father. He was very pious, a great attender of sermons of the best preachers, which he took down in his short-hand, and had with him many volumes of them.

He was also much of a politician; too much, perhaps, for his station. There fell lately into my hands, in London, a collection he had made of all the principal pamphlets relating to public affairs, from to ; many of the volumes are wanting as appears by the numbering, but there still remain eight volumes in folio, and twenty-four in quarto and in octavo.

A dealer in old books met with them, and knowing me by my sometimes buying of him, he brought them to me. It seems my uncle must have left them here when he went to America, which was about fifty years since. There are many of his notes in the margins. This obscure family of ours was early in the Reformation, and continued Protestants through the reign of Queen Mary, when they were sometimes in danger of trouble on account of their zeal against popery.

They had got an English Bible, and to conceal and secure it, it was fastened open with tapes under and within the cover of a joint-stool. When my great-great-grandfather read it to his family, he turned up the joint-stool upon his knees, turning over the leaves then under the tapes. One of the children stood at the door to give notice if he saw the apparitor coming, who was an officer of the spiritual court.

In that case the stool was turned down again upon its feet, when the Bible remained concealed under it as before. This anecdote I had from my uncle Benjamin. The family continued all of the Church of England till about the end of Charles the Second\’s reign, when some of the ministers that had been outed for non-conformity, holding conventicles [9] in Northamptonshire, Benjamin and Josiah adhered to them, and so continued all their lives: the rest of the family remained with the Episcopal Church.

Josiah, my father, married young, and carried his wife with three children into New England, about The conventicles having been forbidden by law, and frequently disturbed, induced some considerable men of his acquaintance to remove to that country, and he was prevailed with to accompany them thither, where they expected to enjoy their mode of religion with freedom.

By the same wife he had four children more born there, and by a second wife ten more, in all seventeen; of which I remember thirteen sitting at one time at his table, who all grew up to be men and women, and married; I was the youngest son, and the youngest child but two, and was born in Boston, New England.

I have heard that he wrote sundry small occasional pieces, but only one of them was printed, which I saw now many years since. It was written in , in the home-spun verse of that time and people, and addressed to those then concerned in the government there. It was in favour of liberty of conscience, and in behalf of the Baptists, Quakers, and other sectaries that had been under persecution, ascribing the Indian wars, and other distresses that had befallen the country, to that persecution, as so many judgments of God to punish so heinous an offense, and exhorting a repeal of those uncharitable laws.

The whole appeared to me as written with a good deal of decent plainness and manly freedom. The six concluding lines I remember, though I have forgotten the two first of the stanza; but the purport of them was, that his censures proceeded from good-will, and, therefore, he would be known to be the author. My elder brothers were all put apprentices to different trades.

I was put to the grammar-school at eight years of age, my father intending to devote me, as the tithe [13] of his sons, to the service of the Church.

My early readiness in learning to read which must have been very early, as I do not remember when I could not read , and the opinion of all his friends, that I should certainly make a good scholar, encouraged him in this purpose of his.

My uncle Benjamin, too, approved of it, and proposed to give me all his short-hand volumes of sermons, I suppose as a stock to set up with, if I would learn his character. But my father, in the meantime, from a view of the expense of a college education, which having so large a family he could not well afford, and the mean living many so educated were afterwards able to obtain—reasons that he gave to his friends in my hearing—altered his first intention, took me from the grammar-school, and sent me to a school for writing and arithmetic, kept by a then famous man, Mr.

George Brownell, very successful in his profession generally, and that by mild, encouraging methods. Under him I acquired fair writing pretty soon, but I failed in the arithmetic, and made no progress in it.

At ten years old I was taken home to assist my father in his business, which was that of a tallow-chandler and sope-boiler; a business he was not bred to, but had assumed on his arrival in New England, and on finding his dyeing trade would not maintain his family, being in little request. Accordingly, I was employed in cutting wick for the candles, filling the dipping mould and the moulds for cast candles, attending the shop, going of errands, etc.

I disliked the trade, and had a strong inclination for the sea, but my father declared against it; however, living near the water, I was much in and about it, learnt early to swim well, and to manage boats; and when in a boat or canoe with other boys, I was commonly allowed to govern, especially in any case of difficulty; and upon other occasions I was generally a leader among the boys, and sometimes led them into scrapes, of which I will mention one instance, as it shows an early projecting public spirit, tho\’ not then justly conducted.

There was a salt-marsh that bounded part of the mill-pond, on the edge of which, at high water, we used to stand to fish for minnows. By much trampling, we had made it a mere quagmire. My proposal was to build a wharf there fit for us to stand upon, and I showed my comrades a large heap of stones, which were intended for a new house near the marsh, and which would very well suit our purpose.

Accordingly, in the evening, when the workmen were gone, I assembled a number of my playfellows, and working with them diligently like so many emmets, sometimes two or three to a stone, we brought them all away and built our little wharf.

The next morning the workmen were surprised at missing the stones, which were found in our wharf. Inquiry was made after the removers; we were discovered and complained of; several of us were corrected by our fathers; and, though I pleaded the usefulness of the work, mine convinced me that nothing was useful which was not honest.

I think you may like to know something of his person and character. He had an excellent constitution of body, was of middle stature, but well set, and very strong; he was ingenious, could draw prettily, was skilled a little in music, and had a clear, pleasing voice, so that when he played psalm tunes on his violin and sung withal, as he sometimes did in an evening after the business of the day was over, it was extremely agreeable to hear. He had a mechanical genius too, and, on occasion, was very handy in the use of other tradesmen\’s tools; but his great excellence lay in a sound understanding and solid judgment in prudential matters, both in private and publick affairs.

In the latter, indeed, he was never employed, the numerous family he had to educate and the straitness of his circumstances keeping him close to his trade; but I remember well his being frequently visited by leading people, who consulted him for his opinion in affairs of the town or of the church he belonged to, and showed a good deal of respect for his judgment and advice: he was also much consulted by private persons about their affairs when any difficulty occurred, and frequently chosen an arbitrator between contending parties.

At his table he liked to have, as often as he could, some sensible friend or neighbor to converse with, and always took care to start some ingenious or useful topic for discourse, which might tend to improve the minds of his children. By this means he turned our attention to what was good, just, and prudent in the conduct of life; and little or no notice was ever taken of what related to the victuals on the table, whether it was well or ill dressed, in or out of season, of good or bad flavor, preferable or inferior to this or that other thing of the kind, so that I was bro\’t up in such a perfect inattention to those matters as to be quite indifferent what kind of food was set before me, and so unobservant of it, that to this day if I am asked I can scarce tell a few hours after dinner what I dined upon.

This has been a convenience to me in traveling, where my companions have been sometimes very unhappy for want of a suitable gratification of their more delicate, because better instructed, tastes and appetites. My mother had likewise an excellent constitution: she suckled all her ten children. I never knew either my father or mother to have any sickness but that of which they dy\’d, he at 89, and she at 85 years of age. They lie buried together at Boston, where I some years since placed a marble over their grave, [15] with this inscription:.

By my rambling digressions I perceive myself to be grown old. I us\’d to write more methodically. But one does not dress for private company as for a publick ball. To return: I continued thus employed in my father\’s business for two years, that is, till I was twelve years old; and my brother John, who was bred to that business, having left my father, married, and set up for himself at Rhode Island, there was all appearance that I was destined to supply his place, and become a tallow-chandler.

But my dislike to the trade continuing, my father was under apprehensions that if he did not find one for me more agreeable, I should break away and get to sea, as his son Josiah had done, to his great vexation.

He therefore sometimes took me to walk with him, and see joiners, bricklayers, turners, braziers, etc. It has ever since been a pleasure to me to see good workmen handle their tools; and it has been useful to me, having learnt so much by it as to be able to do little jobs myself in my house when a workman could not readily be got, and to construct little machines for my experiments, while the intention of making the experiment was fresh and warm in my mind.

My father at last fixed upon the cutler\’s trade, and my uncle Benjamin\’s son Samuel, who was bred to that business in London, being about that time established in Boston, I was sent to be with him some time on liking.

But his expectations of a fee with me displeasing my father, I was taken home again. Here was the country seat of the Bishop of St. Asaph, Dr. Jonathan Shipley, the \”good Bishop,\” as Dr.

Franklin used to style him. Their relations were intimate and confidential. In his pulpit, and in the House of Lords, as well as in society, the bishop always opposed the harsh measures of the Crown toward the Colonies. Every year whose number in the common reckoning since Christ is not divisible by 4, as well as every year whose number is divisible by but not by , shall have days, and all other years shall have days.

In the eighteenth century there was a difference of eleven days between the old and the new style of reckoning, which the English Parliament canceled by making the 3rd of September, , the 14th. The Julian calendar, or \”old style,\” is still retained in Russia and Greece, whose dates consequently are now 13 days behind those of other Christian countries.

The house where he was born was burned in Pastor of the North Church, Boston. He took an active part in the persecution of witchcraft. ROM a child I was fond of reading, and all the little money that came into my hands was ever laid out in books. Pleased with the Pilgrim\’s Progress , my first collection was of John Bunyan\’s works in separate little volumes.

I afterward sold them to enable me to buy R. Burton\’s Historical Collections ; they were small chapmen\’s books, [16] and cheap, 40 or 50 in all.

My father\’s little library consisted chiefly of books in polemic divinity, most of which I read, and have since often regretted that, at a time when I had such a thirst for knowledge, more proper books had not fallen in my way, since it was now resolved I should not be a clergyman. Plutarch\’s Lives there was in which I read abundantly, and I still think that time spent to great advantage.

Mather\’s, called Essays to do Good , which perhaps gave me a turn of thinking that had an influence on some of the principal future events of my life. This bookish inclination at length determined my father to make me a printer, though he had already one son James of that profession. In my brother James returned from England with a press and letters to set up his business in Boston. I liked it much better than that of my father, but still had a hankering for the sea.

To prevent the apprehended effect of such an inclination, my father was impatient to have me bound to my brother. I stood out some time, but at last was persuaded, and signed the indentures when I was yet but twelve years old.

I was to serve as an apprentice till I was twenty-one years of age, only I was to be allowed journeyman\’s wages during the last year.

In a little time I made great proficiency in the business, and became a useful hand to my brother. I now had access to better books. An acquaintance with the apprentices of booksellers enabled me sometimes to borrow a small one, which I was careful to return soon and clean. Often I sat up in my room reading the greatest part of the night, when the book was borrowed in the evening and to be returned early in the morning, lest it should be missed or wanted.

And after some time an ingenious tradesman, Mr. Matthew Adams, who had a pretty collection of books, and who frequented our printing-house, took notice of me, invited me to his library, and very kindly lent me such books as I chose to read. I now took a fancy to poetry, and made some little pieces; my brother, thinking it might turn to account, encouraged me, and put me on composing occasional ballads.

One was called The Lighthouse Tragedy , and contained an account of the drowning of Captain Worthilake, with his two daughters: the other was a sailor\’s song, on the taking of Teach or Blackbeard the pirate.

They were wretched stuff, in the Grub-street-ballad style; [17] and when they were printed he sent me about the town to sell them. The first sold wonderfully, the event being recent, having made a great noise. This flattered my vanity; but my father discouraged me by ridiculing my performances, and telling me verse-makers were generally beggars. So I escaped being a poet, most probably a very bad one; but as prose writing has been of great use to me in the course of my life, and was a principal means of my advancement, I shall tell you how, in such a situation, I acquired what little ability I have in that way.

There was another bookish lad in the town, John Collins by name, with whom I was intimately acquainted. We sometimes disputed, and very fond we were of argument, and very desirous of confuting one another, which disputatious turn, by the way, is apt to become a very bad habit, making people often extremely disagreeable in company by the contradiction that is necessary to bring it into practice; and thence, besides souring and spoiling the conversation, is productive of disgusts and, perhaps enmities where you may have occasion for friendship.

I had caught it by reading my father\’s books of dispute about religion. Persons of good sense, I have since observed, seldom fall into it, except lawyers, university men, and men of all sorts that have been bred at Edinborough.

A question was once, somehow or other, started between Collins and me, of the propriety of educating the female sex in learning, and their abilities for study. He was of opinion that it was improper, and that they were naturally unequal to it.

I took the contrary side, perhaps a little for dispute\’s sake. He was naturally more eloquent, had a ready plenty of words, and sometimes, as I thought, bore me down more by his fluency than by the strength of his reasons.

As we parted without settling the point, and were not to see one another again for some time, I sat down to put my arguments in writing, which I copied fair and sent to him. He answered, and I replied. Three or four letters of a side had passed, when my father happened to find my papers and read them. Without entering into the discussion, he took occasion to talk to me about the manner of my writing; observed that, though I had the advantage of my antagonist in correct spelling and pointing which I ow\’d to the printing-house , I fell far short in elegance of expression, in method and in perspicuity, of which he convinced me by several instances.

The absence of the so called Federal guarantee restricts Australian banks from any excessive risk taking behavior. The Loan to Value Ratio LVR refers to the amount of money borrowed against the total value of the property in a home equity loan. The value of the property is determined by the lender and is often significantly less than the purchase price, which often surprise first-time borrowers.

Typically, the amount that lenders have been prepared to lend for housing has been restricted by one or both of the following:.

The analysis presented in the previous section shows that Australia is fundamentally different to the US when it comes to the residential housing market. But, how does Australia compare to the other countries in the world?

New research conducted by Lloyds TSB [ 27 ] – International Global Housing Market Review, shows that Australia just made it into the top 10 list of countries with the highest house price increases over the past decade Table 3. Four of the six top performing housing markets since were in the emerging economies of the world. Other major findings of the research include:. Countries that had large rises in pre-crisis times lost the most after the GFC affected their economies; and.

But Spain has seen a major decline in The performance of the established house prices in Australian housing market provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics ABS is presented in Figure 8. The Australian housing over the past five years has seen some corrections. Prior to GFC, there has been a considerable growth in the established housing prices. This growth pattern however changed course and reached the worst levels in August when the GFC was setting in. However, the prices of established homes climbed steeply during the peak of the GFC when markets around the world were playing havoc.

This defiance could be mainly attributed to the management initiatives taken by the RBA [ 21 ] and government of Australia. The RBA drastically reduced the interest rates to a record low of 3. This led to flood of first home buyers entering the market that drove the prices up against all odds. Since the time the incentives have been wound back, and the market and investor sentiment took over. This led to a fall in the growth when compared to the preceding three years and has been mostly in the low sentiment in the past two years.

Therefore, although Australian market prices are influenced by the global events, a collapse similar to that seen in markets elsewhere seems appears a distant possibility.

This can be attributed to the underlying government incentives to manage the risks during the crisis. Other micro-economics aspects also helped manage the downturn. Australian annual house price change in the last decade.

House prices have been underpinned by a chronic housing shortage in Australia. This was brought about by an ever increasing population and constraints placed on housing supply over time. Figure 9 shows the increase in population growth from both natural growth and migration since From to September natural population growth has only seen a marginal increase, but during the same period the net overseas migration growth has been substantial.

Trend of natural population increase and net overseas migration. Figure 10 shows that there has been an increase in the total population by about 1. However, given that there has been a large influx of people into Australia, the question was whether there was enough housing infrastructure in place. Net overseas migration and components of population change. Figure 11 shows the trend in the population and dwellings commenced from January to October As shown earlier, the population growth showed an upward trend over the entire period.

The number of dwellings commenced shows a rather distressing trend. Figure 11 shows the commencement of new dwellings significantly fell short and did not keep pace with the rapid growth in population. For an addition of 1. Interestingly, this situation presents a case for more property investment as people search for a place to live. Historically, Australia has been behind in the demand versus supply of residential dwellings, but more so in the last decade than any time earlier.

Figure 12 shows the dwelling gap in the previous decade. Australia continues to run large annual deficits in housing supply – the underlying demand for dwellings and the completion of dwellings has not matched.

Trend in the number of dwellings commenced and population. Estimated dwelling gap in the last decade. National housing supply council NHSC estimates a demand versus supply gap of approximately houses in ; and an increase in the gap from in Figure 13 shows the projections in the supply gap to The figure shows an increase over time till , and indeed a higher rate of increase predicted from till Supply and demand gap projections to To examine whether the situation is the same throughout Australia or mainly confined to a few states, data from all the states are explored in more depth.

Their data runs against the trend for the last decade but more so during The larger states of New South Wales NSW , Victoria Vic , Queensland Qld and Western Australia WA all continue to have high deficits year after year and the deficit is increasing — however, Victoria being an exception in where it managed to go against the trend temporarily Figure To further understand the nature of the differences between states, the net population increase in the demand across states needs to be compared.

Figure 15 shows the state by state net change in population as well as housing issues. The states with a high influx of population showed higher dwelling demand. Not surprisingly, the high demand has led to a rather strong rental market particularly in the larger states and this has provided an impetus for higher rental returns and an ideal time for new investors to consider for the longer term.

With recent housing approvals declining, this demand supply gap can only be expected to widen. Clearly, the population increase cannot only be driving the market. Therefore, other aspects need investigation such as house price to income ratio; and house hold debt to income ratio. Housing demand and supply by states. Net population change – state by state over The house price-to-income ratio is generally calculated using average income of the whole population.

This method of calculating house price may not be appropriate in that a set of buyers whose incomes are above the average income of the wider population, and have the ability to service the loans tend to bid in the auctions there by inflating house prices [ 28 ]. Such competition is visible across all capital cities but more so in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Canberra than other cities. Figure 16 shows the median change in the house prices across eight capital cities since Figure 16 shows that the increase in house prices in the major capital cities have been greater than those of other cities.

This suggests the increase in house prices in Australia over the past five years was driven mostly by house prices in the most expensive cities, where home buyers tend to be higher income earners. The house price-to-income ratio does not seem to pick up the distributional differences. The household debt to disposable income ratio can provide valuable insights while assessing the vulnerabilities. Therefore, disposable incomes of people need to be considered when assessing the vulnerability of an average mum and dad investor.

Figure 17 shows the distribution of debt to income since An indication to the scale of vulnerability can become salient when the house hold income to debt and the annual change in established home price are compared.

Figure 18 shows that there has been a somewhat volatile situation in the housing market in all capital cities during ; yet, during the same period, the debt to income ratio seem to be approximately constant over time.

The comparison shows the average households are not so vulnerable to at least a change in their income situation given there was volatility in house price changes over time. Owner occupier debt Source: RBA. Annual change in established home prices Source: ABS. The aim of this paper was to define risk and risk management in terms of real estate investment thus demonstrating the in depth nature and complexity of the process. The review shows that risk analysis involves a number of steps with each step in turn involving another set of procedures.

Risk analysis is a process that it is often ignored by investors particularly by the individual or smaller investors who tend to be more vulnerable. Similarly, risk management involves a number of processes and stages with steps and these have been outlined in the paper. A risk analysis is conducted here for investors in Australia real estate market.

The results are rather interesting in that several conditional differences exist between Australia and the rest of the world. A tight financial system regulation in Australia means a highly disciplined financial sector. The tougher regulation of the industry therefore prevents financial institutions from taking on excessive risks, contrary to the US counterparts.

In fact, increasing house prices was identified in Australia after the crises of ; and this was associated with the changes in mortgage lending rates, rising family income, increasing overseas migration demand, government incentives to name a few. Together the market situation suggests that Australia is unlikely to face a US style housing bubble. The results of the risk analysis show that:. This has changed in when the higher Australian dollar has posed interesting challenges for the Australian investments.

In summary, Australian housing industry continues to experience significant housing shortages in major cities due to a rapidly growing population; in particular, the growth has been fueled by strong overseas migration during , but the Australian current government immigration laws suggest that the strong levels of immigration will continue for some time due to the lack of skills in the labor market.

The housing demand is further supported by the fact that the size of the Australian household appears to be shrinking adding to the pressure on housing both in rental and investment.

The demand of rental housing together with somewhat lower house prices in recent times buyer marker has lured many new investors in the market. This aspect, the negative gearing benefits, and the first home ownership schemes supported by significantly lower interest rates have all led to a favorable and stronger real estate market in Australia. All of this has occurred within a framework of a stronger, tightly regulated financial sector that has been more-stricter than most advanced economies including the US.

Such a regulated real estate market appears to have kept the mortgage repayment failure and housing related bad debts at a minimum in Australia. Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3. Edited by Nerija Banaitiene. Published: September 12th, Impact of this chapter. Introduction Life is full of risks for example risk is involved in simple things like turning on the gas at home or when dealing with life threatening medical emergency decisions.

Risk management There seems to be an increasing demand of organizations to meet and exceed the financial expectations of shareholders. Ignoring the risks that apply to the business activities or the events that have been planned could impact on the following: customer and public confidence in the organization; credibility, reputation and status; equipment and the environment; financial position of the concerned; and health and safety of employees, customers, volunteers and participants.

The steps involved in managing risk. Establish goals and context To establish context and define goals is an important step. Identify risks Identification of risk involves a systematic process of examining situations and finding solutions.

There are four primary areas in which risk can occur in a general business environment: financial: this could mean loss of funding, insurance costs, fraud, theft, fees etc.

Analyse risks This step determines and addresses the impact of threats that have been documented. The levels of the risks can be classified into extreme: an extreme risk requires immediate action as the potential could be devastating to the enterprise; high: a high level of risk requires action, as it has the potential to be damaging to the enterprise; moderate: allocate specific responsibility to a moderate risk and implement monitoring or response procedures; and low: can manage a low level of risk with routine procedures.

It is then important to ask the following questions in relation to each of the identified risks: What is the likelihood of the risk occurring? What are the consequences if the risk should occur? Evaluate risks In this step the tolerance of the risk is determined; that is, whether the identified risk is acceptable or unacceptable. The evaluation takes into account the following: importance of risk management and possible outcomes of a risky activity; potential and actual losses that may arise from the risk; benefits and opportunities presented by the risk; and degree of control one has over the risk.

A risk is deemed to be an acceptable risk because of following reasons: risk level is low and the benefits presented by the risk outweigh the cost of managing it; risk level is so low that it does not warrant spending time and money to manage it; and risk presents opportunities that are much greater than the threats posed by it.

Treatments of risks Risks may be dealt with in several ways; it can be avoided, reduced, shared or retained. In such situations calculated risks are accepted and a high risk situation may be reduced by: identifying options to treat the risk; selecting the best treatment option; preparing a risk treatment plan; and implementing a risk treatment plan. The nature of strategies to mitigate risk often depends on the experience of the risk manager who may consider one or more of the following [ 3 ]: avoid the risk by deciding not to proceed with the activity or choosing another way to achieve the same outcome; control the risk by reducing the likelihood of the risk occurring, the consequences of the risk or both; transfer the risk by shifting all or part of the responsibility of the risk to another party who is best able to control it; and retain the risk after accepting that the risk cannot be avoided, controlled or transferred.

Monitor and report effectiveness of risk treatments Every organization irrespective of size clearly strives to reduce the risks involved. Table 1. Risk management planning template. Types of risk associated real estate market.

Internal risk Internal risk can be divided into financial management, human resources, property management, legislative compliance, corporate governance and housing management as shown in Figure 5. External risk External risk depends on a number of factors such as economic risk, funding, regulation, environment, reputation, competition, partnerships and natural disasters Figure 2. Introduction: How Australian real estate compares to the rest of the world.

Some aspects of the residential finance system in the U. Australia US Regulation is high on mortgage loans No full recourse of mortgages No negative amortisation of loans yes Securitization is low in housing finance Securitization is high in housing finance Non-conforming loans Subprime loans Full recourse of mortgages No full recourse of mortgages.

Table 2. Mortgage characteristics of Australia as compared to US. Australian real estate market compared to the rest of the world The analysis presented in the previous section shows that Australia is fundamentally different to the US when it comes to the residential housing market. Table 3. Real house price changes — A global comparison.

Australian house prices and the fundamental influences Australian housing demand has been strong and can be also attributed to the following: strong overseas migration from to ; housing shortages due to a rapidly growing population; Australian household sizes are shrinking; lending standards stricter than most advanced economies including the US; and interest rates at record lows.

Trend of net population increase and net overseas migration increase House prices have been underpinned by a chronic housing shortage in Australia. Trend in the number of dwellings commenced and population Figure 11 shows the trend in the population and dwellings commenced from January to October Demand and supply scenario Historically, Australia has been behind in the demand versus supply of residential dwellings, but more so in the last decade than any time earlier.

House price-to-income ratio The house price-to-income ratio is generally calculated using average income of the whole population. Owner- Occupier debt Figure 17 shows the distribution of debt to income since References 1. Sunstein C. International Standard Organization. Guide Risk management- Vocabulary. Hillson D. Murray-Webster R. Understanding and managing risk attitude. Aldershot: Gower; 6. Webb A. Burlington: Gower; 7. London I. IRM; 8.

Extending the risk process to manage opportunities. Int J of Project Management. ACT Insurance Authority. Guide to Risk Management. Susilawati C. Can risk management boost the supply of affordable housing development and management?. Int J Housing Markets Analysis.

Armitage L. Affordable Housing. Annual Conference. Pacific Rim. Once all the parties are ready to proceed it is necessary to have a privacy act is in place so that all information is secure.

The corporation act provides the guidelines for conflicts or issues arising in construction or maintenance of a property. There are several agencies that provide comprehensive legal services to better understand the litigations involved. Anti-discrimination law and disability service act also play an important role in real-estate.

Property owners are liable for any discriminatory acts. It is important to report any hazard or incident and all incidents should be attended to and documented for future reference.

Corporate governance: Corporate governance plays an important role in risk management in the real estate industry. It is important to properly align the ideas, interests and decisions of managers to the interests of both internal and external shareholders. For example, failure to recruit appropriate personnel may lead to conflicts of interest.

If the conflicts are not managed effectively they may have a substantial impact on the company bottom line. It is also expected that the managements re-inspect and update their policies and procedures to meet the market trends and demands of all concerned stakeholders. Housing management: A holistic management of the investment made in real estate can be defined as housing management. Housing management includes keeping track of maintenance and financial arrangements. As a common and popular practice the management of an investment property is outsourced to property management companies who appoint property managers to manage and oversee duties as required.

Property managers on a daily basis are responsible for taking maintenance requests, collecting rent, dues or other fees and are responsible for the overall upkeep of the property. They also perform routine property inspections and organize inspections for the owners. Poor performance of the property managers leads to more grievances for the tenants as well as the owners. External risk depends on a number of factors such as economic risk, funding, regulation, environment, reputation, competition, partnerships and natural disasters Figure 2.

Each of the factors noted are discussed briefly in turn. Funding: The availability of funding depends on a number of aspects such as the economic situation in general, market performance, and credit based upon any future cash flow. Some factors that influence economic performance are: change in political regime, rise in the price of raw materials, emergence of a new competitor and disruptions in production process.

Market performance usually depends on changes in interest rates, changes in laws, and political and financial market factors. The risk of loss of principal or loss of a financial reward stemming from a borrower\’s failure to repay a loan or otherwise meet a contractual obligation falls under the funding risk. It is important to take into consideration as many of the previously mentioned factors while undertaking an investment decision, even when one already has an investment portfolio.

Investors often anticipate future cash flow situations while borrowing money to pay a current debt. The failure of the anticipated cash flow leads to credit risk. However credit risk can be considered less likely since most often the investors are compensated by way of interest payments made by the borrower in end.

Regulatory environment: Investors in real estate projects should be aware of the local, state and federal laws and regulations. These laws depend on economic, credit and market risk as explained above.

Failure to comply with the rules and regulation often leads to delays or in the worst case – complete scrapping of the project; all of which may lead to a complete or partial loss of capital invested.

Reputation: The reputation of a project developer often attracts investor attention and also provides favorable environment for investments.

Joint ventures and partnerships are possible if the reputations are well known and have been built over time – providing partners the opportunities to win potentially new clients and investors, as well greater opportunities for new investments. An investment made into a company with poor credit history may end up losses of the principle amount invested. It could also be wise for an investor to know the value of the tangible and intangible assets and the market value of the organization into which an investment is being planned.

Competition: Property market plays an important role in the economy. There are several players in the market who usually try to attract investors. It is possible that in the process the investors may receive inappropriate financial advice. For example, consumers may not be aware of non-disclosed information pertaining to advice they receive. Partnership: Partnership plays an important role in investing, as it reduces the impact of potential risk on the individual or company investment.

For an investor to be successful in a real-estate partnership it is important to know the partner well and therefore trust plays a vital role. The role of each partner does need to be well defined and documented. Having a clear legal document will protect the interest of all partners.

It also important to plan and document an exit strategy for all involved, because personal situations may change over time. Clearly, before a partnership agreement is made it is necessary to conduct a detail research to become self-confident about the deal.

Natural disasters: In the real real-estate market, location plays an important factor in the investment decision. A property purchased at an appropriate location is expected to provide a good return on the investment. One of the main factors affecting location is the potential exposure to natural calamities such as bushfires, floods, sea level raise and erosion to name a few. If the location has a history or is likely to be exposed to a natural disaster it can be expected that the property prices will eventually be exposed to the risk.

Therefore, it is wise to not be enticed into such toxic locations. Other factors that need to be accounted for are the costs of maintenance of properties and the nature and level of insurance required for risky locations, if chosen.

It is certain that there are many risks involved in real-estate market as mentioned. While real-estate provides variety of investment options every investor has to find their comfort level upon taking risks involved.

It is not easy to decide if a selected property for investment is appropriate, but the decision should be made based on the consideration of all the factors discussed earlier.

In the end however, the willingness to take risks largely depends upon individual preferences and circumstances. The elements that usually determine the scale of risk or reward are the amount of money that is invested, length of time investment, rate of return or property appreciation, depreciation, fees, taxes, inflation etc.

While it is natural for the individual and organizations to invest and expect returns it is important the investors make the informed choice to reduce the odds of losing the principle invested. The potential risks and rewards in investing in the Australian real estate market are investigated next. The speculation about Australian housing market has been intense since The classic sign of an asset bubble.

The house price-to-income ratio has been the main focus in Australia. The house price-to-income ratio is comparatively high when compared to other countries. In the next sections a discussion of the fundamentals that govern the house prices in Australian residential housing market is examined. Also, the potential risks and rewards to the investors are explored in terms of the risk analysis framework presented earlier.

Since the U. Moreover, it is observed that the house price-to-income ratio levels are at levels that are similar to that in the US before the housing market there crashed in However, it is important to analyze the fundamentals that govern Australian residential market price growth against the rest of world.

In the US, the residential finance system played a significant role in the housing bubble of The regulation, residential finance institutional arrangements, and mortgage characteristics aided the excessive demand for housing finance.

Housing finance was available and offered to borrowers with poor borrowing capacities. Consequently, excessive borrowing led to the housing bubble and the collapse of the financial system in the U. S in There are some fundamental differences in the lending practice in Australia when compared to the US [ 21 ]. In Australia the lending process is highly regulated by the institutional arrangement. The lending practices enforce the regulatory provisions on financial institutions forcing them to avoid excessive risk taking behavior.

Table 2 outlines the characteristics of housing loans both in the U. S and in Australia. The table highlights the systemic susceptibility to riskier mortgages in the US and that availability of such funds to finance the mortgages were more common than in Australia.

Negative amortization loans are common in the US but no such loans existed in Australia at the time of the crisis. This is also deters financial institutions from offering risky loans. These primary differences stand out to support and contribute to a relatively strong performance of the housing loans in Australia when compared to the US. It is important to note that the share of non-performing loans in Australia were less than 1.

Another fundamental difference is that there is no government sponsored enterprise GSE in Australia while they exist in the US. This potentially provides an impression that bad loans offered to borrowers with poor repayment capacity would be covered by the Federal Government [ 23 ]. The commercial banks are mainly funded by the bank deposits, short term and long-term wholesale debt [ 24 ].

The absence of the so called Federal guarantee restricts Australian banks from any excessive risk taking behavior. The Loan to Value Ratio LVR refers to the amount of money borrowed against the total value of the property in a home equity loan.

The value of the property is determined by the lender and is often significantly less than the purchase price, which often surprise first-time borrowers. Typically, the amount that lenders have been prepared to lend for housing has been restricted by one or both of the following:. The analysis presented in the previous section shows that Australia is fundamentally different to the US when it comes to the residential housing market.

But, how does Australia compare to the other countries in the world? New research conducted by Lloyds TSB [ 27 ] – International Global Housing Market Review, shows that Australia just made it into the top 10 list of countries with the highest house price increases over the past decade Table 3. Four of the six top performing housing markets since were in the emerging economies of the world. Other major findings of the research include:. Countries that had large rises in pre-crisis times lost the most after the GFC affected their economies; and.

But Spain has seen a major decline in The performance of the established house prices in Australian housing market provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics ABS is presented in Figure 8.

The Australian housing over the past five years has seen some corrections. Prior to GFC, there has been a considerable growth in the established housing prices. This growth pattern however changed course and reached the worst levels in August when the GFC was setting in.

However, the prices of established homes climbed steeply during the peak of the GFC when markets around the world were playing havoc. This defiance could be mainly attributed to the management initiatives taken by the RBA [ 21 ] and government of Australia.

The RBA drastically reduced the interest rates to a record low of 3. This led to flood of first home buyers entering the market that drove the prices up against all odds. Since the time the incentives have been wound back, and the market and investor sentiment took over. This led to a fall in the growth when compared to the preceding three years and has been mostly in the low sentiment in the past two years.

Therefore, although Australian market prices are influenced by the global events, a collapse similar to that seen in markets elsewhere seems appears a distant possibility. This can be attributed to the underlying government incentives to manage the risks during the crisis. Other micro-economics aspects also helped manage the downturn.

Australian annual house price change in the last decade. House prices have been underpinned by a chronic housing shortage in Australia. This was brought about by an ever increasing population and constraints placed on housing supply over time. Figure 9 shows the increase in population growth from both natural growth and migration since From to September natural population growth has only seen a marginal increase, but during the same period the net overseas migration growth has been substantial.

Trend of natural population increase and net overseas migration. Figure 10 shows that there has been an increase in the total population by about 1. However, given that there has been a large influx of people into Australia, the question was whether there was enough housing infrastructure in place. Net overseas migration and components of population change. Figure 11 shows the trend in the population and dwellings commenced from January to October As shown earlier, the population growth showed an upward trend over the entire period.

The number of dwellings commenced shows a rather distressing trend. Figure 11 shows the commencement of new dwellings significantly fell short and did not keep pace with the rapid growth in population.

For an addition of 1. Interestingly, this situation presents a case for more property investment as people search for a place to live. Historically, Australia has been behind in the demand versus supply of residential dwellings, but more so in the last decade than any time earlier. Figure 12 shows the dwelling gap in the previous decade. Australia continues to run large annual deficits in housing supply – the underlying demand for dwellings and the completion of dwellings has not matched.

Trend in the number of dwellings commenced and population. Estimated dwelling gap in the last decade. National housing supply council NHSC estimates a demand versus supply gap of approximately houses in ; and an increase in the gap from in Figure 13 shows the projections in the supply gap to The figure shows an increase over time till , and indeed a higher rate of increase predicted from till Supply and demand gap projections to To examine whether the situation is the same throughout Australia or mainly confined to a few states, data from all the states are explored in more depth.

Their data runs against the trend for the last decade but more so during The larger states of New South Wales NSW , Victoria Vic , Queensland Qld and Western Australia WA all continue to have high deficits year after year and the deficit is increasing — however, Victoria being an exception in where it managed to go against the trend temporarily Figure To further understand the nature of the differences between states, the net population increase in the demand across states needs to be compared.

Figure 15 shows the state by state net change in population as well as housing issues. The states with a high influx of population showed higher dwelling demand. Not surprisingly, the high demand has led to a rather strong rental market particularly in the larger states and this has provided an impetus for higher rental returns and an ideal time for new investors to consider for the longer term.

With recent housing approvals declining, this demand supply gap can only be expected to widen. Clearly, the population increase cannot only be driving the market. Therefore, other aspects need investigation such as house price to income ratio; and house hold debt to income ratio. Housing demand and supply by states. Net population change – state by state over The house price-to-income ratio is generally calculated using average income of the whole population.

This method of calculating house price may not be appropriate in that a set of buyers whose incomes are above the average income of the wider population, and have the ability to service the loans tend to bid in the auctions there by inflating house prices [ 28 ].

Such competition is visible across all capital cities but more so in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Canberra than other cities. Figure 16 shows the median change in the house prices across eight capital cities since Figure 16 shows that the increase in house prices in the major capital cities have been greater than those of other cities. This suggests the increase in house prices in Australia over the past five years was driven mostly by house prices in the most expensive cities, where home buyers tend to be higher income earners.

The house price-to-income ratio does not seem to pick up the distributional differences. The household debt to disposable income ratio can provide valuable insights while assessing the vulnerabilities. Therefore, disposable incomes of people need to be considered when assessing the vulnerability of an average mum and dad investor. Figure 17 shows the distribution of debt to income since An indication to the scale of vulnerability can become salient when the house hold income to debt and the annual change in established home price are compared.

Figure 18 shows that there has been a somewhat volatile situation in the housing market in all capital cities during ; yet, during the same period, the debt to income ratio seem to be approximately constant over time. The comparison shows the average households are not so vulnerable to at least a change in their income situation given there was volatility in house price changes over time.

Owner occupier debt Source: RBA.

 
 

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